about yield, probability, holding cost, portfolio, and the future of the currency, the probability of success, check full stop, normal distribution, the matthew effect, stable investment, trading frequency, quantitative, these you all understand?
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look at the following six computing problem, don't look at the answer you can do right?
1, the yield is
=1 million.obviously a 50% loss is much easier than making 100 percent, isn't it?
2, fluctuation stop
, if you have 1 million, after the first day of trading, the asset reaches 1.1m, then the next day falls, then the asset is remaining 990,000.so if the first day goes down, and the next day, then the next day, what's your asset?
=$990,000.don't lose heart when you're down.
.if you have 1 million, you earn 40% in the first year, 20% in the second year, 40% in the third year, 20% in the fourth year, 40% in the fifth year and 20% in the sixth year.now what are your assets?
is 145,000 yuan.the yield was only 5.83 per cent, or even below the five-year coupon rate.
.if you have 1 million, you don't need a daily limit of the daily limit, you only need to earn 1 percent to leave the field, so you can count on 250 days each year, how much of your assets will you have in a year?two years?
:the answer is that your assets can reach 12032,000 a year, and you can have 145m in two years.
5, 10 years 10 times
.if you have 1 million, you want to reach 10 million in 10 years, 100 million in 20 years, 1 billion yuan in 30 years, so what is the annual return rate?
:the answer is that you need to achieve a annualized yield of 25.89%.
if you bought 10,000 yuan at 10 yuan of a stock, now it's down to 5 yuan and then you can buy 10,000 yuan, how much can you reduce the cost of holding?
:the answer is that the cost can be reduced to 6.67 yuan instead of your imaginary 7.50 yuan.
investment of 13 math problems
1, holding costs
if you have 1 million yuan, an investment stock profit 10%, when you do sell decision may try to leave a$100000 market value of the stock, then your holding costs will drop to zero, then you can hold for a long time without any pressure.if you extremely bullish on the development of the company, also can leave 200000 market value of the shares, you will find that your profits from 10% to 100%, don't be proud because if the stock fell more than 50%, you're likely losses;
without risk assets(5% per year) and risk assets b(20% to 40% per year), if you had 1 million dollars, you can invest 800000 riskless asset and risky assets 200000 b, then you throughout the year the worst earnings may be zero, and the best benefits is likely to be 12%, which is applied to the prototype of the capital preservation fund cppi technology;
3, casino earnings
macau gambler 1000 data are analyzed, found that the probability of the outcome was 53% and 47%, which win money away on average profit of 34%, and the one who lose money leave the average losses of 72%, when the casino does not need to make profit, ensure fair on the weakness of human nature can continue to profit.the same is true of the stock market.
4, and the future of the currency
if you give the children in the bank, 10000, a 5% annual interest, so will roll for 1.315 million, 200 years later, if the country's money supply growth remain at more than 10%(now china's broad money m2 totaled 107 trillion, annual growth of 14%), 100 years after the chinese monetary aggregates will break through 1.474525 quintillion, with a population of 2 billion, per capita deposits will break 737 million(not including real estate, securities, collection and all kinds of assets).
, if it is only a matter of time before the collapse of the monetary system, it is not just china and the whole world facing the reconstruction of the monetary system.the rate of currency issuance will gradually move down to below 2 per cent, with a 20 per cent yield per year that is not easy for the chinese to realise at the time.
5, probability of investment success
, if your probability of success is 60%, then it means you have invested 100 times in a row, 60 of them profit and 40 losses.if you put the check surplus and stop-loss is set to 10% and-10%, it means that the final yield is 350%(40^^ 60 * 0.9=4.50 1.1)
yes, friend, have bright blind your eyes, the yield of 3.5 times.the next thing you need to think about is how you can guarantee that your odds are 60 percent, and don't take it for granted that the success rate is almost impossible for most people.george soros has said he doesn't care about the odds, and expects to make more money when he is profitable than when he loses money.assume that every time we check surplus was 10%, and each stop is 5%, the investment of 100 times in a row, assuming that the outcome probability is 50%, that means you're the final yield is 803.26%(1.1 0.95^^ 50 * 50=0.95)
yes, you have no wrong, the yield is 800%.the premise is that you can firmly stop loss and stop profit, and then you can guarantee 50 percent chance of reaching more stop profit opportunities?
7, normal distribution
this is normal distribution, a lot of things in the world such as the proportion of genius and a fool is very few, most of the masses are ineffective, such as the distribution of social wealth, the rich and the poor also present normal distribution, human height, weight and so on too many things are presented normal distribution.no matter the bear market, the fluctuation of all stocks and the market will also present a normal distribution, the stock that can exceed the index rise is only a few.
, when you want to overdo it, it must be that you have a certain factor or a certain ability that also reaches the positive minimum area of the positive distribution.what if you don't have the ability?of course, good luck is the core competitiveness of investment, but don't forget that the good or bad luck will also be the normal distribution.
8, matthew effect
tuhao account 100 million yuan principal, diaosi account 10000yuan principal, tuhao annual yield 10%, diaosi yield 100% a year.at the end of the year, the account was 110 million yuan, a diaosi account 200,000 yuan, and the gap between the two sides increased by 9.9 million yuan.when your principal isn't an order of magnitude, you probably don't know what the other person is thinking.
9, the chicken rabbit and the cage
10, healthy investment
the result is 69% higher than a b two years two years 65%, 4%, higher than that of simple question just to tell you the steady investment is not equal to low income, but in order to ensure that eventually get higher yields greater uncertainty.
11, trading frequency
12, quantitative investment
, the so-called quantitative investment is to build model, derivative, control risk, automatic transaction.the more appropriate metaphor is to find objects, and most of what we do is qualitative investment, including two schools:fundamental analysis and technical analysis.the former refer to education, income, family, personality factors, then dig white horse big blue-chip, hold the rest of my life for a long time, which is now more and more popular, because it's a look at the face and feel s.and parents in this matter is often determined investors"quantitative", they limited the local registered permanent residence, economic commodious, parents good health, personal character, has the housing loans(more than 100 square meters), the divorce of a spouse out directly, and so on a series of indexes, and gives different weights, when meet the condition will be actively trade demands.how happy is that?see what you can do.the only difference is that it can be traded at high frequency, and it's best to get married.
if you have 1 million, borrowing shorting a stock, then you may be one of the biggest yield is 100%, the premise is you to short stocks fall out, and do more yield is no upper limit, so don't permanent short, if you don't believe in the human society forward.